Insights

Deloitte: back-to-school budgets slip as 57% fear downturn

With parents trading down and 51% choosing private label, pet food and litter brands should accelerate value tiers to retain switchers.

By Scott Zhu July 13, 2026 2 min read
Deloitte: back-to-school budgets slip as 57% fear downturn
Quick answer: Deloitte’s 2026 back-to-school survey finds parents planning $557 per K-12 student, down about 2% and roughly 6% after inflation, for a $30.4 billion season. Economic worry dominates as 57% expect the economy to worsen, the highest reading since 2020, driving trade-down behaviour.

Deloitte’s 2026 back-to-school survey finds parents planning $557 per K-12 student, down $13 or about 2% from last year, and roughly 6% lower after inflation, for a total season of about $30.4 billion. Economic worry dominates: 57% of respondents expect the economy to worsen over the next six months, the highest reading since 2020.

Lower-income households feel the squeeze most, with 80% of families earning $50,000 or less citing rising prices as a reason to spend more, while 67% of those earning $100,000-$199,000 plan to cut back. Shoppers are stretching: 48% of parents will start before end-July versus 61% in 2025, and 31% are extreme value seekers using four or more saving behaviours. Digital tools matter, as GenAI users plan to spend $737 versus $531 for search-and-social shoppers, and online buyers average $614 against $521 in stores. Notably, 71% would switch brands if prices are too high, 51% expect to choose private label over name brands, and 80% still shop big-box retailers first.

Why it matters for the pet industry

The same trade-down instinct is landing on pet baskets: owners who switch brands and reach for private label on back-to-school will do the same on pet food, treats and litter. Pet brands should accelerate value-tier and private-label lines, protect shelf with promo bundles, and use first-party data to defend premium SKUs against the 71% who will abandon a brand on price.

What to watch

  • Q3 pet private-label share as a read on whether trade-down spreads from groceries.
  • Whether premium pet-food repeat rates hold as 51% embrace store brands.
  • Back-to-school final spend versus Deloitte’s $30.4 billion estimate for demand signal.

FAQ

What does the pet private label trend signal from Deloitte?

Deloitte finds 51% of parents expect to choose private label over name brands and 71% would switch brands if prices are too high, while 80% still shop big-box first. The same trade-down instinct lands on pet food, treats and litter as owners reach for store brands.

How should pet brands defend premium SKUs?

Pet brands should accelerate value-tier and private-label lines and protect shelf with promo bundles, using first-party data to defend premium SKUs against the 71% who abandon a brand on price. Owners who switch brands on back-to-school will do the same on pet baskets.

What should brands watch for Q3 pet private-label share?

Brands should watch Q3 pet private-label share as a read on whether trade-down spreads from groceries, and whether premium pet-food repeat rates hold as 51% embrace store brands. Back-to-school final spend versus Deloitte’s $30.4 billion estimate also signals demand direction.

Source intelligence adapted for the GlobalPetIndex pet-industry audience. Original publication: external brief.

Scott Zhu
Scott Zhu

Senior researcher at GlobalPetIndex, tracking pet business strategy, M&A and brand intelligence.