Insights

UK Feb retail sales slip 0.4% before energy shock

Middle East energy shock and 4% inflation will lift UK pet-product input costs while cooling discretionary pet demand.

By Scott Zhu March 31, 2026 2 min read
UK Feb retail sales slip 0.4% before energy shock
Quick answer: UK retail sales fell 0.4% month on month in February, their first decline in three months, milder than the 0.7% economists expected, after January was revised up to a 2.0% gain. The OECD raised its G20 inflation forecast to 4% as a Middle East conflict threatened energy prices.

UK retail sales fell 0.4% month on month in February, their first decline in three months, after January’s figure was revised up to a 2.0% gain, according to the Office for National Statistics. The drop was milder than the 0.7% economists expected. Supermarket sales slipped in February after January growth, online retailers also declined as consumers front-loaded purchases to capture discounts, and wet weather hit household-goods sales.

McKinsey partner Sergey Kondratyuk said underlying demand looks fragile and households plan to cut furniture spending. The British Retail Consortium reported the deepest non-food drop since May. A GfK survey showed households saving more and delaying big purchases ahead of an energy-price shock worsened by Middle East conflict; the OECD raised its G20 inflation forecast to 4%, and Next and H&M warned the conflict could lift clothing prices.

Why it matters for the pet industry

Pet food and litter are energy-intensive to manufacture and freight, so the Middle East-driven energy shock and OECD’s 4% inflation call point to higher UK pet-product input costs and shelf prices through the year. Margin pressure lands on both manufacturers and retailers.

With household-goods sales already weak and big purchases delayed, discretionary pet segments, premium toys, aquatics and accessories, face a demand chill even as staple pet nutrition holds up. Pet brands should protect entry-price tiers and hedge energy-linked packaging and freight costs now.

What to watch

  • Track UK pet-food input costs against the OECD 4% inflation call.
  • Watch the summer energy-cap reset’s effect on pet-product margins.
  • Monitor non-food pet demand versus the weak household-goods trend.

FAQ

What drove the UK retail sales drop in February?

UK retail sales fell 0.4% in February, their first drop in three months, after January was revised up to a 2.0% gain. The decline was milder than the 0.7% economists expected. Supermarket sales slipped, online retailers declined as consumers front-loaded discounts, and wet weather hit household-goods sales.

How does the energy shock hit UK pet products?

Pet food and litter are energy-intensive to manufacture and freight, so the Middle East-driven energy shock and the OECD’s 4% inflation call point to higher UK pet-product input costs and shelf prices through the year. Margin pressure lands on both manufacturers and retailers as staple nutrition holds but discretionary pet segments cool.

Which pet segments weather the UK demand chill?

Staple pet nutrition holds up while discretionary pet segments face a demand chill: premium toys, aquatics and accessories are most exposed as household-goods sales weaken and big purchases are delayed. Pet brands should protect entry-price tiers and hedge energy-linked packaging and freight costs to defend margin through the year.

Source intelligence adapted for the GlobalPetIndex pet-industry audience. Original publication: external brief.

Scott Zhu
Scott Zhu

Senior researcher at GlobalPetIndex, tracking pet business strategy, M&A and brand intelligence.