TL;DR: Refrigerated and frozen fresh dog food grew +13.4% in the latest 2025 read, while total dog food declined −0.2%, according to NielsenIQ. Fresh is the only dog-food segment expanding by double digits.
fresh dog food growth: key facts
The most important growth signal in pet food this year is a divergence: while the total dog food category flatlined at −0.2%, fresh refrigerated and frozen dog food surged +13.4% (NielsenIQ,). That gap—between a stagnant legacy category and a booming fresh one—defines where the next decade of value will be created. This article explains the driver, the leaders, and what the shift means for brands and retailers.
How Fast Is Fresh Dog Food Growing in 2025?
The headline contrast from NielsenIQ :
- Refrigerated/frozen dog food: +13.4%
- Total dog food: −0.2%
In other words, every bit of growth in dog food is concentrated in fresh, while conventional dry and canned formats are essentially treading water or shrinking in volume. This is a “mix shift,” not just category growth: owners are trading kibble dollars for fresh dollars.
This acceleration dovetails with the broader pet food CAGR of ~4.2% (IMARC; see pet food market) and the cat-vs-dog split where cats grow ~6% versus dogs ~3.8% (Euromonitor). Fresh is the dog side’s answer to premiumization.
What Counts as “Fresh” Dog Food?
Fresh dog food spans several formats, all distinguished from shelf-stable kibble by refrigeration or freezing and human-grade ingredients:
- Refrigerated fresh — e.g., Freshpet rolls and tubs, sold in the fridge aisle.
- Frozen fresh — DTC-shipped patties and meals (The Farmer’s Dog, Ollie, Nom Nom).
- Freeze-dried raw — shelf-stable but biologically raw (Stella & Chewy’s leads freeze-dried dog food).
- Fresh toppers — added to kibble to lift palatability and nutrition.
The NielsenIQ +13.4% figure specifically captures refrigerated/frozen, the most mature fresh retail segment.
Why Is Fresh Dog Food Outpacing the Total Market?
Humanization and the “human-grade” demand
43.6% of owners prioritize pet food health over their own (Pride and Groom). Fresh food reads as “real food,” closing the gap between what owners eat and what they feed. Reddit communities (owner forums) consistently elevate WSAVA-compliant brands but also discuss fresh upgrades for coat, digestion, and weight.
Vet and nutrition credibility
Fresh players lead with transparency—named meats, visible vegetables, no vague by-products. While vets caution that not all fresh is complete-and-balanced (AAFCO statement required), the category’s clean-label appeal is powerful.
Subscription economics
DTC fresh is built on autoship. Chewy’s Autoship drives 83.3% of its revenue (LinkedIn Chewy IR), and fresh DTCs replicate the model: predictable deliveries, high retention, rising LTV. Recurring revenue lets fresh brands out-spend legacy players on acquisition.
Retail legitimation
Freshpet’s FY2025 net sales hit $1.10 billion (first profitable year, LinkedIn Freshpet IR), proving fresh belongs in mainstream grocery and pet-chain fridges, not just DTC.
Which Brands Lead Fresh Dog Food?
Freshpet — the refrigerated benchmark
Freshpet reached $1.10B FY2025 net sales (+13%), its first annual net profit, across 30,235 retail points (LinkedIn Freshpet IR; see Freshpet results). It is the category’s retail anchor.
The Farmer’s Dog — DTC scale
~$1.2B ARR in 2024 (+50%), 1B+ meals delivered, now on Walmart.com (indexed.vc/LinkedIn; see Farmer’s Dog ARR). Human-grade fresh meals at $50–100/month are a common healthy upgrade per owner forums.
Ollie — retail expansion
Ollie scored 8.2/10 in expert reviews and launched a baked turkey recipe in Petco stores in 2025 after raising $112.65M (CB Insights/LinkedIn; see Ollie funding).
Challengers
Smalls (~$100M, cat-focused but expanding), Butternut Box (£126.7M, +82%, LinkedIn; see Butternut Box), JustFoodForDogs (JustFresh in 1,500+ stores), and Blue Buffalo’s Love Made Fresh via General Mills.
How Big Is the Fresh Opportunity?
Fresh is still a small share of the ~$136.6B pet food market, but the trajectory is steep:
- US fresh pet food: $1.38B (2025) → $9.64B (2035) (Emergen Research; see US fresh pet food).
- Refrigerated fresh segment: $2.15B (2032e $3.74B), North America 45% (PMarketResearch; see refrigerated pet food).
Even conservative scenarios put fresh as a multi-billion-dollar, double-digit-CAGR pocket inside a mature market.
What Are the Risks to Fresh Growth?
- Price sensitivity. Fresh costs multiples of kibble; downturns hit it first.
- H5N1 food-safety rules. The 2025 avian flu pushed FDA-CVM to require H5N1 risk in pet-food safety plans, tightening raw/fresh controls (BSM Partners).
- FDA–AAFCO ingredient rift. Slows new-ingredient and label innovation (BSM Partners).
- Shelf-life and cold chain. Refrigerated fresh needs fridge real estate and a cold chain retailers must maintain.
What Do Dog Owners Say About Fresh Food?
Community verdicts add the qualitative layer behind the +13.4% number. On owner forums (cited), owners repeatedly describe fresh upgrades improving coat shine, digestion, and weight management, and many treat fresh as a “real food” alternative to kibble. The caveat owners raise: not every fresh recipe is complete-and-balanced, so they look for an AAFCO statement and a named meat first ingredient. On owner forums (32.4k members, Quora), the raw/fresh debate continues, with supporters citing energy and stool quality and skeptics citing bacterial and nutritional risks. The net community signal: fresh wins on perceived quality, provided it is formulated to maintenance standards.
Is Fresh Dog Food Nutritionally Complete?
The honest answer depends on the brand. Reputable fresh players formulate to AAFCO maintenance profiles and publish feeding trials; veterinary nutritionists generally accept these as complete. The risks flagged by the FDA and vets are concentrated in home-prepared and raw formats lacking calcium/phosphorus balance or exposed to pathogens. The 2025 H5N1 outbreak pushed FDA-CVM to require avian-influenza risk in pet-food safety plans (BSM Partners), tightening raw/fresh controls. For owners, the safe path is a commercially formulated fresh meal with an AAFCO statement rather than DIY.
How Should Retailers Merchandise Fresh?
Fresh’s +13.4% velocity (NielsenIQ) justifies premium fridge and end-cap placement. Retailers that bundle trial (in-store fridge) with subscription (autoship, mirroring Chewy’s 83.3% Autoship revenue, LinkedIn Chewy IR) convert one-time buyers into annuities. The constraint is cold-chain cost and shelf-life, which keep fresh gross margin below kibble unless velocity is high.
Related reading
FAQ
How fast is fresh dog food growing in 2025?
Refrigerated/frozen fresh dog food grew +13.4%, while total dog food fell −0.2% (NielsenIQ, 2025).
Why is fresh outpacing regular dog food?
Humanization, clean-label credibility, subscription economics, and retail legitimation (Freshpet at $1.10B) are shifting spend from kibble to fresh.
Which brands lead fresh dog food?
Freshpet (refrigerated benchmark, $1.10B), The Farmer’s Dog (~$1.2B ARR), Ollie ($112.65M raised), and challengers like Butternut Box and JustFoodForDogs.
How big can fresh dog food get?
US fresh pet food is forecast at $1.38B (2025) → $9.64B (2035) (Emergen Research).
What risks could slow fresh growth?
Price sensitivity, 2025 H5N1 safety rules, the FDA–AAFCO ingredient rift, and cold-chain complexity.
Sources
- NielsenIQ (2025) —; refrigerated/frozen dog food +13.4% vs total dog food −0.2%.
- IMARC (2025) —; global pet food $136.6B, ~4.2% CAGR.
- Euromonitor / Quora (2025) —; cat food CAGR ~6% vs dog ~3.8%.
- Pride and Groom (2025) —; 43.6% prioritize pet food health over own.
- Chewy IR (2025) —; Autoship 83.3% of revenue.
- Freshpet IR (2025) —; $1.10B net sales, first profit, 30,235 retail points.
- Indexed.vc (2025) —; The Farmer’s Dog ~$1.2B ARR, +50%.
- CB Insights (2025) —; Ollie $112.65M raised, Petco launch.
- Butternut Box (2025) —; £126.7M revenue (+82%).
- Smalls (2025) —; ~$100M revenue.
- General Mills (2025) —; Blue Buffalo Love Made Fresh via PetSmart.
- Emergen Research (2025) —; US fresh pet food $1.38B→$9.64B.
- PMarketResearch (2025) —; refrigerated fresh $2.15B (2032e $3.74B), NA 45%.
- BSM Partners (2025) —; H5N1 safety rules; FDA–AAFCO rift.
- owner forums (2025) —; community fresh-food discussion.
