Import volumes at major US ports are expected to climb in June to hedge against imminent cost increases, then fall below year-earlier levels this autumn, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said retailers are bringing goods in early because tariffs or fuel prices could rise from August, but the underlying trend is still falling volumes as the Iran conflict pushes inflation higher and deepens economic uncertainty.
The increase is flattered by a weak comparison, since June 2025 volumes slumped after the Liberation Day tariffs announced two months earlier. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted that importers now face higher freight rates and newly imposed tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled the 2025 tariff structure unlawful. He said the current surge should run into July as an early peak season rather than a sharp spike, before weakening as consumer uncertainty and rising inflation take hold. Ports covered by the report handled 2.05 million TEU in April excluding New York and New Jersey, down 5.1% from March and 7.3% year on year. May is forecast at 2.14 million TEU, up 9.7%; June at 2.25 million, up 14.3%; July at 2.19 million, down 8.4%; August at 2.12 million, down 8.6%; September at 2.06 million, down 2.2%; and October at 2.08 million, up 0.1%. That puts first-half 2026 volumes at 12.6 million TEU, up 0.6%.
Why it matters for the pet industry
Pet hard goods are among the most freight-exposed items in the category: crates, carriers, cat trees, kennels, aquariums and beds are high-cube and low-density, so ocean and drayage costs form an unusually large share of landed cost. Fuel surcharges hit these SKUs harder than a bag of kibble. Pulling holiday pet gifting inventory forward converts freight risk into carrying cost, tying up working capital and 3PL pallet space from July rather than September.
What to watch
- Whether tariff or bunker-driven fuel increases actually land in August as importers have assumed
- The July to September TEU declines forecast at 8.4%, 8.6% and 2.2% and any resulting spot rate relief
- Warehouse occupancy and storage rates near Los Angeles and Savannah during the early peak
FAQ
What does global port tracker show for imports?
The Global Port Tracker report forecasts US port imports of 2.25 million TEU in June, up 14.3%, then 2.19 million in July and 2.12 million in August as volumes fall. April handled 2.05 million TEU and May 2.14 million, with first-half 2026 volumes totaling 12.6 million TEU, up 0.6% on a weak prior-year comparison.
How do early imports affect pet hard goods?
Pet hard goods are among the most freight-exposed items: crates, carriers, cat trees, kennels, aquariums and beds are high-cube and low-density, so ocean and drayage costs form an unusually large share of landed cost. Pulling holiday pet gifting inventory forward converts freight risk into carrying cost and ties up working capital from July.
Should pet brands ship earlier than 2025?
Compared with 2025, when June volumes slumped after the Liberation Day tariffs, importers now face higher freight rates and new tariffs after the Supreme Court voided the 2025 structure. Pet brands should pull holiday pet gifting inventory forward into the early peak rather than wait, accepting carrying cost over freight and tariff risk.
Source intelligence adapted for the GlobalPetIndex pet-industry audience. Original publication: external brief.
