TL;DR: BSM Partners’ 2025 insight list centers on three defining forces—H5N1’s impact on pet food safety, the widening FDA–AAFCO regulatory split, and “the future is feline”—each reshaping how brands formulate, label, and market pet products this year (BSM Partners, 2025).
pet industry 2025 insights — what you need to know
Every year, pet-industry law and strategy firm BSM Partners publishes a set of forward insights that operators watch closely because they sit at the intersection of regulation, science, and commerce. The 2025 edition (BSM Partners, 2025) clusters around three headline themes: the H5N1 avian-influenza shock to pet-food safety plans, the federal–state rift between FDA and AAFCO over ingredient and labeling authority, and the blunt strategic call that “the future is feline.” Together they frame the year’s risk and opportunity map for pet-food executives.
The three pillars of BSM’s 2025 view
1. H5N1 and pet food safety
The 2025 avian-influenza (H5N1) outbreak pushed the FDA Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) to require that pet-food safety plans explicitly address H5N1 risk (BSM Partners, 2025). This is a meaningful shift for manufacturers of raw, fresh, and freeze-dried products, where pathogen controls are already under the microscope. We cover this in depth in our companion piece on H5N1’s impact on pet food.
2. The FDA–AAFCO split
BSM flags the growing federal–state divide between the FDA and AAFCO (Association of American Feed Control Officials) on ingredient definitions and labeling. AAFCO’s model rules have long been the backbone of state feed laws; as FDA and states diverge, new-ingredient launches slow (BSM Partners, 2025). See our dedicated analysis of the FDA–AAFCO split.
3. “The future is feline”
BSM’s punchy thesis is that cats are the growth engine of the pet industry. This aligns with the “cat renaissance” documented by Packaged Facts (2025): 82% of cat owners view food as health, and cat-food CAGR (6%) outpaces dog food (3.8%) per Euromonitor (2025). Brands ignoring feline-specific innovation risk missing the category’s fastest lane.
Why BSM’s read matters
BSM Partners is a law-and-consulting firm embedded in pet-food regulatory practice, so its insights are less trend-gazing and more early-warning on compliance and litigation. When BSM names H5N1 and FDA–AAFCO as defining, manufacturers should treat them as operational priorities, not op-ed themes.
Deep dive: H5N1 risk in safety plans
What changed
Following widespread 2025 avian-influenza detections, FDA-CVM signaled that pet-food safety plans must incorporate H5N1 risk assessment and mitigation (BSM Partners, 2025). That means:
- Supplier verification for avian-derived ingredients.
- Enhanced pathogen-kill-step validation in cooking/extrusion.
- Tighter controls on raw and lightly processed formats.
- Possible recall-readiness upgrades.
Who is exposed
- Raw and fresh pet food makers (highest scrutiny).
- Freeze-dried raw (FD) producers.
- Treat and topper manufacturers using poultry.
- Any brand sourcing from regions with active outbreaks.
Strategic response
Brands are investing in third-party testing, cold-chain integrity, and transparent sourcing to reassure buyers. The reputational cost of an H5N1-linked pet-food incident is high, so prevention is now a marketing asset.
Deep dive: the FDA–AAFCO rift
What the split is about
AAFCO provides ingredient definitions and labeling model language that U.S. states adopt into feed law. The FDA, via CVM, has its own authorities and has at times diverged on:
- What qualifies as an approved ingredient.
- How novel proteins and additives are defined.
- Label claims and “human-grade” usage.
- The pace of updating definitions for new inputs.
BSM (2025) argues this federal–state friction slows new-ingredient launches, because a brand may satisfy one authority but trip another.
Why it matters for innovation
- Novel proteins (insect, cultured, alternative) face definitional ambiguity.
- Functional ingredients (supplements, botanicals) need clearer lanes.
- Sustainability claims lack uniform federal backing.
- Smaller brands lack the legal bandwidth to navigate conflicting signals.
Possible resolutions
- Renewed FDA–AAFCO alignment on model definitions.
- State-level harmonization to reduce patchwork.
- Industry coalition lobbying for clearer federal preemption.
Until then, caution dominates, and launch timelines stretch.
Deep dive: “the future is feline”
The data behind the thesis
- Cat-food CAGR 6% vs dog food 3.8% (Euromonitor, 2025).
- China’s cat spend grew +5.2% in 2025, leading dogs (China Pet White Paper, 2025).
- Packaged Facts (2025) “cat renaissance”: 82% of cat owners see food as health; 39% feel like “second-class” pet parents—an unmet-need signal.
- owner community exceeds 8.6 million members, reflecting intense owner engagement.
What feline-forward strategy looks like
- Species-specific formulations (urinary, kidney, weight) rather than dog-led leftovers.
- Wet-led portfolios for hydration (cats drink less voluntarily).
- Fresh and functional cat products (Smalls hit ~$100M in cat fresh, LinkedIn Smalls, 2025).
- Communication that treats cat owners as underserved, not secondary.
Cross-cutting implications for 2025
| Theme | Operational impact | Winner / loser |
|---|---|---|
| H5N1 | Tighter safety plans, more testing | Compliant fresh brands win; lax raw losers |
| FDA–AAFCO | Slower novel-ingredient launches | Big brands with legal teams; small innovators strained |
| Feline future | Cat-specific R&D and marketing | Brands with feline focus; dog-only laggards |
How this connects to the broader market
BSM’s themes sit atop a growing industry:
- Global pet care ~$207B (2025) (Euromonitor, 2025).
- Global pet food ~$136.6B (IMARC, 2025).
- Fresh dog food +13.4% while total dog food fell −0.2% (NIQ, 2025)—innovation is where growth is.
- Functional treats soft-chew format at 42% (NIQ, 2025).
Regulation (H5N1, FDA–AAFCO) and demand (feline) are the two blades of the 2025 scissor.
Risks BSM’s view implies
- Compliance cost inflation squeezing small brands out.
- Recall risk from H5N1 missteps damaging category trust.
- Innovation bottleneck from regulatory ambiguity.
- Over-rotation to cats leaving dog niches under-served (though dogs remain larger in absolute spend).
What to watch in 2025–2027
- FDA-CVM guidance formalization on H5N1 in pet food.
- AAFCO–FDA reconciliation or further divergence.
- Cat-specific product launches outpacing dog.
- Litigation tied to labeling claims BSM warns about.
Reading BSM’s insights as an operator
For manufacturers
The H5N1 mandate means budget for testing and supplier audits now, not later. The FDA–AAFCO split means hire or retain regulatory counsel before launching novel ingredients. The feline thesis means allocate R&D to cat-specific innovation.
For retailers and platforms
Stock and merchandise the compliant, cat-forward, safely sourced brands. Use the regulatory narrative as a trust differentiator in private-label and curated assortments.
For investors
Regulatory friction (H5N1, FDA–AAFCO) raises barriers to entry, protecting incumbents and making compliant scale brands more attractive. The feline shift points capital toward cat-specific and fresh/functional categories.
For veterinarians
Expect more client questions about H5N1-safe food and novel-ingredient labels. Position the clinic as the trusted interpreter of BSM-style regulatory complexity.
The bigger picture: regulation as the 2025 storyline
Where 2021–2023 was about demand explosion, 2025 is about operational maturity. BSM’s three insights all point to a market professionalizing under regulatory and scientific pressure. Brands that treat compliance as strategy—not paperwork—will compound advantage as the category consolidates.
Related reading
- How H5N1 is reshaping pet food safety
- The FDA–AAFCO split on pet food rules
- The cat renaissance and feline market growth
FAQ
What are BSM Partners’ top 2025 pet industry insights?
BSM Partners (2025) centers its 2025 insights on H5N1’s impact on pet food safety, the FDA–AAFCO regulatory split, and the thesis that “the future is feline.”
Why does BSM say ‘the future is feline’?
Cat-food CAGR (6%) outpaces dog food (3.8%) per Euromonitor (2025), and the “cat renaissance” shows cat owners are health-focused and underserved (Packaged Facts, 2025).
How does H5N1 affect pet food under BSM’s view?
FDA-CVM now requires H5N1 risk in pet-food safety plans (BSM Partners, 2025), tightening controls on raw, fresh, and freeze-dried formats.
What is the FDA–AAFCO split BSM highlights?
It is the federal–state divergence on ingredient definitions and labeling that slows new-ingredient launches (BSM Partners, 2025).
Why should pet brands care about BSM’s insights?
BSM is a regulatory-law firm; its insights are early warnings on compliance and litigation that translate directly into operational priorities.
Sources
- BSM Partners (2025): 2025 insights—H5N1, FDA–AAFCO split, “the future is feline.”
- Euromonitor (2025): Global pet care ~$207B; cat food CAGR 6% vs dog 3.8%.
- IMARC (2025): Global pet food ~$136.6B, ~4.2% CAGR.
- Packaged Facts (2025): “Cat renaissance”; 82% of cat owners view food as health; 39% feel underserved.
- China Pet White Paper (2025): China cat spend +5.2% in 2025.
- NIQ (2025): Fresh dog food +13.4% while total dog food −0.2%; functional soft-chew 42%.
- LinkedIn Smalls (2025): Smalls ~$100M cat-fresh revenue.
