Supply-chain specialist Advanced Supply Chain (ASC) warned that retail supply chains may need up to five months to recover from disruption caused by the Iran conflict, raising the risk of higher Christmas prices for shoppers. Even if peace talks restart and Hormuz Strait passage is secured, ASC said transport costs will not begin falling to pre-conflict levels before mid-July, leaving retailers exposed during peak ordering.
UK and Europe sales director Stuart Greenfield noted that past shocks, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and 2023 Houthi Red Sea attacks, took three to five months to stabilize, followed by a longer rebalancing phase. Reopening Hormuz will not bring instant normalcy: stranded tankers and delayed sailing schedules must clear first. The warning comes as conflict-era oil topped $100 a barrel and Asia to Europe freight rates surged, though Greenfield said retailers are working to shield consumers from further price rises through hedging and forward buying.
Why it matters for the pet industry
Pet food relies on globally shipped inputs, fish meal and seafood for cat nutrition, plus resins and plastics for packaging, much of it moving through or near Hormuz. A five-month recovery means pet food OEMs face extended input-cost and freight pressure into the holiday peak, when treat and toy demand is highest.
The $100-a-barrel oil floor lifts resin and transport costs embedded in every bag and can of pet food, while delayed sailings threaten imported treat and toy replenishment. Brands should pre-build holiday inventory and hedge input costs now to avoid passing steep increases to pet owners in Q4, when price sensitivity typically rises alongside household budgets.
What to watch
- Track Hormuz transit reliability for pet food input shipments and routed ocean freight.
- Watch oil and Asia to Europe freight rates into the Q4 pet holiday peak.
- Monitor pet food and treat price moves as the five-month recovery gradually unfolds.
FAQ
How long will the pet food supply chain disruption last?
Advanced Supply Chain estimates up to five months for retail supply chains to recover from the Iran conflict. Past shocks, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the 2023 Houthi Red Sea attacks, took three to five months to stabilize, followed by longer rebalancing.
Which pet food inputs face the biggest cost pressure?
Pet food relies on globally shipped inputs, fish meal and seafood for cat nutrition plus resins and plastics for packaging, much of it moving through or near Hormuz. The $100-a-barrel oil floor lifts resin and transport costs embedded in every bag and can.
Should brands pre-build holiday pet inventory now?
Yes. A five-month recovery means pet food makers face extended input-cost and freight pressure into the holiday peak, when treat and toy demand is highest. Brands should pre-build inventory and hedge input costs rather than pass steep fourth-quarter increases to pet owners.
Source intelligence adapted for the GlobalPetIndex pet-industry audience. Original publication: external brief.
